Small and Big Data-Based Scenarios

Small and Big Data-Based Scenarios

Financial companies have widely adopted big data analytics to uncover hidden patterns or unknown correlations that can help them make better predictions and thus more-informed business decisions. However, if not supported by rigorous methodological criteria, these methods can be more than misleading.

This seminar covers a range of forecasting tools from small data and small models to big data and big models. Best forecasting principles are introduced and some of the most used methodologies in machine learning are also studied. Participants will learn how to create plausible alternative scenarios and assess their impact on their investments.

With this online course, participants will now understand how to use scenarios in their decision making process.

All together, participants get empowered through practical tools that can be applied back at their desk to fit their particular needs.

Welcome & Introduction

A Primer on Predictions

  • How to get better at predictions
  • How to avoid being fooled by randomness
  • Slow tails and paradigm shifts

 

CASE STUDY:
Computing and updating your likelihood matrix

Best Practices in Nowcasting

How to be ahead of the curve

  • Best forecasting principles
  • Trend versus noise
  • Big models vs. small models

CASE STUDY:
Nowcasting macroeconomics data with key indicators

Forecasting and Machine Learning

Casting an AI Model

  • Big data versus small data: the curse of dimensionality
  • Machine learning: the danger of overfitting
  • Mixing human intelligence with AI

CASE STUDY
Forecasting credit data

 

Scenarios in Asset Management

Building Scenarios

  • Defining states of the world
  • Stress testing your portfolio
  • Market driven vs. subjective scenarios

 

CASE STUDY
Asset allocation with regime changes

Seminar Details

Lecturer: Gregory Gadzinksi, PhD
Duration: 4 x 3h
Languages: English (also available in French)
Group Size: Online


Learning Goals

Learn how to build plausible scenarios by using small and big data management techniques.


Target Groups
  • Family Offices/ Multi-Family Offices
  • Wealth Managers
  • Private Banks/ Regional Banks
  • Investment companies
  • Trusts
  • Finance Director
  • Financial Analyst
  • Corporate Treasurer
  • Management Consultant
  • Performance Manager