Ipsos Retail Performance has released its latest monthly report forecasting footfall in UK retail environments, forecasting the changes across the regions of the UK for the month of June.

Following a disappointing May for retailers in terms of footfall, with last moth seeing a considerable decline in overall footfall across the UK by 4% as well as a Year-on-year decline across every region. The considerable uptick in footfall felt in the months of March and April looked again under threat amid increasing inflationary pressures impacting real wages and standards of living.

Scotland and Northern Ireland looks set to underperform this month relative to the rest of the UK with a projected footfall drop of 3.3% in June following April’s considerable month-on-month decline. London and the South East is forecast to perform well over this coming month with an increase in retail footfall of over 3%. Brick and mortar retailers in The Midlands also look likely to benefit from increased footfall in June with an uptick predicted to the value of 1.3%. The overall increase in footfall for the United Kingdom this month is positive at exactly 5% and signals a pick up following a shaky May. Though the UK as a whole is should benefit from footfall growth in the month of June, a common theme has been the continuing malaise resting over the North of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland highlighting a north/south footfall divide.

As Summer truly kicks in and consumers become more inclined to step away from online purchases, taking to the highstreets, we should witness higher levels of consumption. With last month’s poor performance relative to last year and a blip in the footfall recovery that began in March, retailers should not take for granted this month’s positive prognostications as macroeconomic trends and an ever more challenging retail environment takes hold with consumers tightening their belts in preparation for what could be an extended, problematic period for the UK. The continuation of subdued private investment in Scotland and the North of England continues to threaten these regional shopping locations and may impact consumer behaviour in the coming months and years.

By Alasdair Pocock, Retail Research Analyst at Bayfield Training
Ipsos Retail Performance