Ipsos Retail Performance has released its latest monthly report, analysing the retail traffic in UK retail environments and forecasting the changes across the UK regions for the month of August.

It seems that, just like the temperature, footfall was at its peak in the month of July. The Month on Month change from June to July showed a 6.8% footfall increase in UK overall. Although there has been some regional variation, with Northern England, the Midlands and London & The South East performing below the average, the overall trend was up. However, looking at yearly change, the performance was less positive. Overall, retail footfall experienced a 3% decline in July versus last year, with Scotland & Northern Ireland being the only region to show an increase in footfall of 2.4%.

As the summer comes to an end and the temperature starts to drop, the retail traffic seems to follow this downward trend. The summer-infused increase in footfall in June and July seems to have worn out, with expectations of a decrease in August. A fall in footfall of 5.0%, overall in the UK, is predicted, with slight variations across the different regions. Scotland & Northern Ireland and SW England & Wales are expected to experience a shallower footfall decrease of 4.7% and 2.7% accordingly. The retailers in Northern England, Midlands and London & South East are predicted to experience an even deeper decrease in footfall of 5.7%, 5.9% and 5.3% accordingly.

Therefore, as the temperatures drop the summer sales and back-to-school campaigns come to an end, the retail traffic is expected to decrease from its peak in July. Following the decrease in footfall, consumer confidence is expected to continue its downward trend since last summer’s referendum, all of which indicates that retailers may have a rougher month ahead of them.

By Patricia Rus, Retail Research Intern at Bayfield Training